Bloomberg Talks

Ken Rogoff Talks Risks Facing US Fiscal Health

5 snips
Sep 5, 2025
Ken Rogoff, a Harvard professor and former IMF Chief Economist, dives into the pressing issues of the US economy and job market. He discusses the precarious link between US fiscal health and interest rates, exploring how low rates have masked debt challenges. Rogoff also highlights inefficiencies in the tax system and the importance of promoting economic growth. Additionally, he examines the implications of recent global economic disruptions and the Fed's role in navigating fiscal crises.
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INSIGHT

Interest Rates Drive Fiscal Risk

  • Rising interest rates, not debt alone, drive fiscal danger for the U.S. economy.
  • If real rates stay higher, current debt paths become unsustainable within years.
ADVICE

Shrink Primary Deficits First

  • Run smaller primary deficits while reforms are organized to avoid compounding interest costs.
  • Improve tax efficiency and aim for a 2–3% deficit rather than current larger gaps.
ANECDOTE

Polyester Suit At Rhodes Interview

  • Rogoff recounts arriving at a Rhodes interview in a loud polyester suit because he'd never owned a suit.
  • He later uses the suit story to illustrate cultural impressions while playing chess in Poland.
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