TLDR Will Trump Change the Canadian Economy?
Nov 13, 2024
Following the recent U.S. election, the podcast dives into the stock market's reaction, highlighting record highs and contrasting initial bearish sentiments. It explores the implications of Trump's proposed tariffs on trade with Canada, weighing the benefits for American industries against potential price hikes for consumers. A special guest shares insights on betting strategies during elections, revealing how traders profit from political outcomes. The hosts discuss industry-specific winners and losers, focusing on how policy changes could reshape the economic landscape.
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Profitable Election Bets
- David made a 7% return trading election prediction markets.
- His strategy involved selling 'tail' bets, like Trump winning New York, and reallocating profits to directional bets.
Exploiting Prediction Markets
- Identify and sell mispriced 'tail' outcomes in prediction markets, where people make high-payout, low-probability bets.
- Capitalize on the price correction as the event unfolds, reallocating profits to more likely outcomes.
Value of Prediction Markets
- Prediction markets can be valuable for policy and economic forecasting.
- They provide insights into collective beliefs about future events, but some find them distasteful for certain topics.