The Duran Podcast Off-ramp to US-China tariff war
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Apr 27, 2025 The podcast delves into the potential thawing of tensions in the US-China tariff dispute, sparking cautious hope for negotiations. It discusses the complex trade dynamics and possible tariff reductions that could foster mutual economic benefits. The conversation highlights the challenges of U.S. trade agreements with nations like India and Japan, amidst a backdrop of rising protectionism. Additionally, it examines the intricate geopolitical landscape, particularly the delicate relationships between India, Pakistan, and the implications for global stability.
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Tariffs Unsustainable, Heading to 20%
- The US-China tariff war tariffs are unsustainable and will likely reduce from extreme highs to about 20%.
- This reduction aims to protect American industry rather than crush China's economy.
Global Support for China Persists
- The US expected global economic isolation of China that did not materialize, forcing a rethink.
- Both nations seem to be moving towards a managed economic divorce and stable trade levels.
Complexity of Trade Relationships
- Trade agreements with other countries like India and Japan are complex and take years, slowing US efforts.
- India cannot afford to cut off trade with China given economic ties and infrastructure investments.