TRIGGERnometry We’re Already in Recession - Jim Rickards
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Apr 6, 2025 
Jim Rickards, an American lawyer, investment banker, and author of "Money GPT," shares insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses the signs indicating a potential recession and examines how tariffs can influence domestic production and inflation. The conversation touches on the geopolitical dynamics in Ukraine, the challenges of U.S. manufacturing, and the implications of energy policies on European independence. Rickards also highlights the critical relationship between debt ratios and economic sustainability, prompting listeners to rethink conventional economic narratives.
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Recession Indicators
- The U.S. is likely in a recession, based on indicators like the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now tracker and declining hiring.
- The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official recession scorekeeper, typically announces recessions six months after they end, making real-time indicators crucial.
Yield Curve and Recessions
- An inverted yield curve, where long-term interest rates are lower than short-term rates, signals an impending recession. This is set by significant market players.
- A flattening yield curve suggests the recession has arrived, as short-term rates decrease and the curve returns to a normal shape.
Benefits of Tariffs
- Tariffs benefit the U.S. by encouraging domestic manufacturing and creating high-paying jobs, even if other countries suffer.
- The focus should be on American interests first.