Wall Street Breakfast ADP steals spotlight and reports jobs losses
4 snips
Oct 1, 2025 ADP shakes up the market with a surprising 32,000 job loss, stirring debates about its reliability among economists. The White House withdraws a key BLS nominee amidst ongoing leadership changes. In other news, Nike's earnings reignite optimism, while Reddit feels the impact of plummeting ChatGPT citations. The Supreme Court steps in to protect Fed Governor Lisa Cook as China's Golden Week is set to boost consumer spending. It's a whirlwind of market movements and economic updates!
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ADP Report Moves Markets
- ADP's September report showed a surprising 32,000 drop in private payrolls and large August revisions, grabbing market attention amid missing official data.
- Markets immediately trimmed losses, bond yields fell, and odds of two rate cuts rose sharply on the news.
Limits Of Private Payroll Data
- Economists caution ADP offers limited value and has a poor longer-term forecasting record versus official data.
- Private data can mislead when official sources are missing because models must estimate outside their narrow view.
BLS Nominee Withdrawn
- The White House withdrew its BLS nominee E.J. Antony and will name a new candidate soon.
- This follows the agency's recent leadership turmoil after the firing of Erica McIntyre.