Orville Schell, Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations, shares his extensive expertise on China and U.S.-China dynamics. He delves into Xi Jinping's shifting worldview and the factors behind China's pivot towards self-reliance after years of globalization. The conversation also highlights the challenges of technological decoupling, the geopolitical risks tied to supply chains, particularly regarding Taiwan, and the intricate semiconductor landscape crucial for both nations' futures.
Xi Jinping's leadership marks a strategic pivot towards technological independence in China, aiming to diminish reliance on Western markets.
The potential decoupling from the West poses significant threats to global supply chains and technological collaborations, complicating existing dependencies.
Deep dives
Shifts in U.S.-China Relations
The U.S.-China relationship has undergone significant changes in the past decade due to geopolitical shifts and internal political dynamics within China. Key factors contributing to this shift include the historical context of engagement initiated in the 1970s and the subsequent rise of Xi Jinping, whose political ideology reflects a distrust of the West. Although past administrations in the U.S. supported this engagement model, China's growing confidence and push for technological self-reliance have led to a decoupling that challenges the previously beneficial global relationship. This new stance not only impacts trade but also influences China's approach to foreign policy and its perception of global partnerships.
Technological Independence and Self-reliance
Xi Jinping's leadership emphasizes a vision for a technologically independent China, aiming to reduce reliance on Western markets while aiming to create dependencies on China for global markets. This ambition, rooted in historical notions of self-reliance, drives Beijing's focus on advancing its capabilities in critical areas like microchips and artificial intelligence. Despite the practical challenges posed by the interconnected nature of technology, Xi's regime seeks to establish a distinct research and innovation ecosystem that operates independently from the West. This decoupling poses significant risks not only for China but also for global technological collaboration, as both sides navigate their dependencies amidst rising tensions.
The Consequences of Global Decoupling
The potential decoupling between China and the West could result in substantial disruptions within the global supply chain and technology research commons. As companies reassess their dependencies and geopolitical risks, a shift in strategies is becoming increasingly urgent yet complex, given the intricacies of existing global operations. Historical precedents highlight how rapid geopolitical changes can lead to severe ramifications, as seen in past global conflicts. The semiconductor industry exemplifies these challenges, representing a critical area where nations are grappling with their interdependencies while striving to establish self-sufficient technological frameworks.
In this episode of GeoTech Wars, Kirt is joined by Orville Schell, Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at Asia Society. The conversation examines Xi Jinping's worldview and why China has shifted course after decades of economic growth driven by globalization.
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