Political Fix Reeves’ £30bn treasure hunt
Oct 31, 2025
Join Stephen Bush, a keen political analyst, Robert Shrimsley, chief commentator for the FT, and Sam Fleming, economics editor, as they dive into Rachel Reeves' challenge to find £30bn before the Budget. They discuss the pressure on Labour's manifesto tax pledges and the potential fallout from the OBR's troubling productivity downgrade. The panel debates the implications of breaking tax promises, explores trade-offs between national insurance and income tax, and speculates on the long-term strategy leading to the next election.
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£30bn Fiscal Gap Looms
- The government faces a fiscal gap of roughly £30bn ahead of the November budget.
- That shortfall forces hard choices on taxes or spending that will define the government's credibility.
Reeves' Rental Licence Misstep
- Rachel Reeves rented out her Dulwich home via an agent without securing a required Southwark licence.
- Robert Shrimsley called it a bad look and suggested it may be an oversight rather than malfeasance.
Productivity Downgrade Is The Key Driver
- The OBR's productivity downgrade is the primary driver enlarging the fiscal hole.
- Lower productivity forecasts reduce expected tax receipts and force bigger consolidation measures.