NatSec Matters The Race to Control Global Tech: Craig Singleton
Dec 31, 2025
Craig Singleton, a senior director and fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, dives deep into the tech rivalry between the U.S. and China. He highlights China's strategic use of rare earth magnets and its implications for American manufacturing. Singleton critiques the profit-sharing deal involving NVIDIA's H20 chips, warning of potential risks. He details China's 'five-lever playbook' for dominating critical technologies like polysilicon and LiDAR, emphasizing the hidden threats to U.S. national security, including in biotech.
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Mutually Assured Disruption In Trade
- The U.S. and China are in a "mutually assured disruption" where each knows the other's pressure points.
- China tolerates long supply-chain pain longer than the U.S., creating leverage for Beijing.
Rare Earths As A Strategic Lever
- China can throttle U.S. rare earths and magnets quickly, risking U.S. assembly lines.
- Singleton expects China to maintain short license windows to keep pressure over time.
Export Controls Are Strategic Leverage
- The U.S. holds major levers via export controls and capital flow restrictions against China.
- Overly generous carve-outs risk weakening that leverage and export-control effectiveness.