The MeidasTouch Podcast Professor Allan Lichtman on the Trump-Biden Election and 'Spineless' Dems
Jul 20, 2024
Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of modern American history known for his election prediction system, shares insights on the upcoming Biden-Trump showdown. He critiques the Democratic Party’s strategies and their reliance on misleading polls. Lichtman discusses the critical role of incumbency and suggests a contingency plan for Democrats amid internal challenges. The conversation underscores the threats to democracy posed by media sensationalism and highlights historical indicators that could determine Biden's re-election fate.
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Poll Volatility
- In 1988, George H.W. Bush was 17 points down in polls to Mike Dukakis but ultimately won by nearly eight points.
- Similarly, Obama went from eight points up to four points down after a poor debate performance against Romney but still won handily.
Poll Inaccuracy
- Polls often misrepresent likely voters due to skewed samples and human unpredictability.
- Their claimed error margin only accounts for statistical sampling errors, ignoring other crucial factors like human behavior.
Focus on Data
- Don't rely solely on polling data when analyzing elections.
- Focus on quantitative, methodical factors and historical patterns.