42 Macro Consolidated Summary: September 30, 2024

This episode delves into key macro questions, including whether China’s stock market gains will spill over to global equities and if policymakers will continue supporting global liquidity. Highlights include China’s significant market rally as seen in the 9% gain of the CSI 300 Index and a 30% appreciation in the FXI ETF, bolstered by discretionary risk management shifts. The discussion covers insights into sticky U.S. inflation, a resilient U.S. economy with a dovish Fed targeting a soft landing, and the influence of a weak USD and fiscal policies on global liquidity. Quantitative risk management signals, the GOLDILOCKS market regime, and positioning models are explored to underscore strategies favoring risk-on assets like high beta stocks, cyclicals, growth assets, gold, and emerging markets. Additionally, the episode outlines risk management strategies such as maintaining long positions in gold and Chinese equities, amidst mixed quantitative signals across commodities, crypto, and bonds.