ForeCast

How Can We Prevent AI-Enabled Coups? (with Tom Davidson)

24 snips
Aug 17, 2025
Tom Davidson, a Senior Research Fellow at Forethought, dives into the urgent topic of AI-enabled coups. He discusses the risks posed by AI in consolidating power illegitimately, emphasizing the need for robust checks and balances. The conversation highlights the necessity of ethical oversight in military R&D and the importance of stakeholder collaboration. Davidson warns about potential manipulation within AI systems and advocates for clear guidelines to protect democratic values. With insights from historical precedents, he stresses the need for vigilance in governance.
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INSIGHT

AI-Enabled Coups Are Distinct But Equally Serious

  • AI-enabled coups differ from misaligned AI because the AI may be loyal to a small human clique rather than to itself.
  • The overall harm could be in the same ballpark as an AI takeover and deserves focused attention.
INSIGHT

Define Rules Then Make Them Real

  • Two-step mitigation: define the rules for what AIs should and shouldn't do, then implement them technically and socially.
  • Combine technical guardrails with laws, contracts, norms and audits.
ADVICE

Treat Three Distinct Coup Pathways

  • Anticipate three core pathways to coups: loyal AIs in institutions, secret loyalties, and exclusive cognitive advantage.
  • Focus mitigations on each pathway because each recommends different defenses.
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