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Backlog Psychology - Fix Your Broken Expectations
Oct 12, 2023
The podcast explores the concept of expectation and how it influences our perception of reality. It discusses the importance of practice in creating stability and the impact of binary bias on our expectations. It also delves into the concept of backlog psychology, where individuals place all their expectations on one outcome. The podcast emphasizes the importance of considering a range of outcomes and leaning towards higher estimations to align expectations with multiple possibilities.
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Quick takeaways
- Develop multiple expectations for a task and assign a probability ranking to each, allowing for a flexible understanding of what may occur.
- Lean towards a range-based estimation approach, establishing a high-end estimate and considering multiple outcomes for enhanced accuracy and adaptability.
Deep dives
Developing Multiple Expectations
When it comes to expectations, humans tend to have a binary bias, believing that something will either happen or it won't. However, this binary mindset disregards the reality that our expectations are rarely 100% accurate. To overcome this bias, it is beneficial to develop multiple expectations for a given task or work item. Instead of relying on a singular expectation, it is recommended to create two or three different expectations and assign a probability ranking to each. This approach allows for a more flexible and probabilistic understanding of what may occur.
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