SI75: Morgan Housel on history being a bad guide for the future

Feb 16, 2020

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On today’s show, we discuss Morgan Housel’s recent article on history & historians generally being a bad guide for the future, the popularity of negative predictions, social media as a gauge for current market conditions, the limits of trading indexes versus diversified individual stocks, why following price may be more important than just committing to a bullish or bearish position, and Meb Faber’s recent interview with Tim Hayes, who talked about the dangers of non-price-based indicators.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:12 – Macro recap from Niels

02:59 – Weekly review of performance

05:23 – Top Tweets

34:12 – Michael; Question 1: Would avoiding all S&P500 stocks improve a Trend Following system?

36:57 – Chris; Question 2: Can you explain the term ‘Vol Targeting’?

43:40 – Adrian: Question 3: What recent client requests have you refused to accommodate, when it comes to altering either your strategies, or your business?

53:31 – Francois; Comment related to recent episodes where we discussed Trend Following on equities

57:24 – Benchmark performance update

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