When Hindsight Meets Foresight - How Did My Crystal Ball Fare?

Every January, I like to make some predictions about the year ahead. Then, in my final post of the year, which this will probably be, I go back and review them. That’s what we are doing today.

Before I begin, just a couple of things:

* In case you missed it, check out Friday’s piece on North American tax loss selling. It has 9 ideas for short-term trades, which could come good by February.

* And there is now a video version of "The Chainsaw and the Swamp: A Tale of Two Economies" for your Sunday morning viewing pleasure.

Right. Here we go …

Predictions are funny things. The more outlandish the prediction, the more entertaining the copy, but the less likely it is to actually happen. What is more important: getting lots of eyeballs or being right?

I like this exercise because it demonstrates just how much perspective can change over time. While we can change strategy as events develop, what I wrote a year ago does not, so when you look back at stuff you got wrong, you can look foolish, even if you changed tack in real time. On the other hand, if you got stuff right, people go - well that was obvious.

So the rules of my little game are this: I score two points for a direct hit, one for a good call, zero for a miss, and minus one for a "David Lammy on Mastermind" fail.

I made 15 predictions. Here they are:

1. The Great Decline goes on.

I was pleased with this one, even if it was rather negative.

“Everywhere the state’s tentacles reach remains a drain on productivity. Our once-great institutions continue to fall apart, like zombie meth addicts, stumbling towards dysfunction... The ordinary worker desperately trying to improve his lot is bled dry by taxes, inflation, housing costs, and the voracious state monster. Fiat loses yet more of its purchasing power. The South Africanisation of everything continues.”

Gosh, it’s depressing and negative. Things may be changing on the other side of the pond, but they are not in Europe. Two points.

2. Gold breaks out to new highs and goes to $2,400.

And some. $2,790 was the high. We’re now at $2,620. Two points.

3. Bitcoin goes to new highs as well.

Yup. We are at $98,000 as I write. $108,000 was the high. Two points.

4. For reasons I don’t understand, ethereum outperforms bitcoin.

Ethereum always seems to move later in the cycle and by more, hence the prediction. But in 2024 bitcoin outperformed. Zero points.

5. The US dollar trends sideways.

It didn’t. The US Dollar Index began the year at 100 and ended about 8% higher around 108. Another big fat zero.

6. Sterling has problems.

Cable began the year at around $1.27 and it’s now at $1.25, having been as high as $1.34. So it’s down a bit. But the eight-year cycle low that I am looking for has not materialized. I’m sure it’s coming, but zero points.

7. The Tories are eviscerated.

Pleased with this one.

They had their chance and they blew it. Come the General Election this year, the voters are unforgiving. … The SNP is similarly annihilated. The shortcomings of our political system are there for all to see. But nothing that needs to change does.

Roughly 80% of the country did not vote Labour, yet they got 63% of the seats. Incredible. And they call it democracy. Two points.

8. Uranium to hit $125/lb.

Nope. The highest it got was $105/lb, and that was in January. It spent the rest of the year declining; it's now at $73. Minus one. Totally wrong.

9. Fast and processed food companies have problems.

I think I am early to this. Let’s see what RFK does. But, by way of proxy, McDonald's is flat on the year; Burger King (Restaurant Brands International) is down 14%; KFC is off about 10%.

Good call. Two points.

Seed oils are losing.

10. Good year for the Japanese yen.

It has to go up sometime right? It’s so cheap.

Nope. It went down. Minus one.

11. The S&P500 has a good year.

I’ll say. It’s up 25%. Way above expectation. Two points.

12. Small caps outperform.

Apart from a brief spell in summer, they didn’t. It feels like they are starting to, but nope. Zero points.

13. UK house prices. Atrophy and stagnation, but no meltdown

That feels about right. About 50% of stuff on the market isn’t selling, apparently. I’m not surprised; the cost of moving is so high. Two points.

14. Silver. Can it stage a meaningful rally above $30?

Nope, I said. It went to $34 in October. Now it’s $29. Was that rally meaningful? Well, it did better than I thought it would. Zero points.

15. Liverpool win the league; Sheffield United, Burnley, and Luton are relegated.

Got the losers right but not the winners. 1 point.

All in all, not a great showing. 13 points.

Oddly enough, whenever I score low on the predictions, I have a much better year in the portfolio. That was the case this year, where we have had some real winners in the Flying Frisby: bitcoin and MicroStrategy, obviously, but also Lightbridge and Novavax too. Meanwhile, the low-risk Dolce Far Niente portfolio is rocking it.

Happy Christmas everyone. Thank you for being a subscriber.

And why not gift someone a subscription this Christmas?

I’ll have some predictions for 2025 early in the new year.

Until next time.

Dominic

PS Don’t forget:

* In case you missed it, Friday’s piece on North American tax loss selling has 9 ideas for short-term trades, which could come good by February.

* Plus the video version of "The Chainsaw and the Swamp: A Tale of Two Economies" for your Sunday morning viewing pleasure.

Become enlightened.

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