Dan Burns, a U.S. Economics Editor, joins Donald Trump, the former President, and Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, to debate crucial tax policy shifts as 2017 cuts near expiration. They dive into the potential impact of proposed tax cuts and corporate rate reductions, along with the implications for the federal deficit. The discussion also touches on the debate over taxing tips in the hospitality industry, illustrating how these changes could affect both taxpayers and the economy in a rapidly changing political landscape.
The expiration of the Trump tax cuts in 2026 raises significant implications for U.S. taxpayers and economic growth if not addressed.
Trump and Harris present contrasting tax proposals, highlighting the broader debate between supply-side and demand-side economic theories for future policy.
Deep dives
Implications of Upcoming Tax Changes
The expiration of the tax cuts implemented by Donald Trump in 2017 will significantly affect US taxpayers and the economy, with personal tax cuts set to rise unless Congress intervenes. The complexity of tax structures will likely increase, resulting in higher tax rates for most Americans by 2026, unless there is an extension of these cuts. While extending the cuts could mean trillions in lost revenue over the next decade, not acting could also result in a detrimental impact on the economy, as increased tax rates may slow down growth. This political scenario places candidates like Trump and Kamala Harris in positions where their proposals will directly influence the upcoming election and the future of US tax policy.
Economic Theories on Tax Policy
Two prevalent economic theories shape the debate on taxation: demand-side and supply-side economics. Demand-side economists argue that tax cuts during economic downturns can stimulate consumption and revitalize growth, while supply-side proponents suggest that lower taxes encourage work, savings, and investments, resulting in broader economic benefits. The impact of Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act showcased some immediate growth, yet that momentum diminished by 2019, raising questions about its long-term efficacy in the broader economic context. Moreover, the challenge lies in balancing tax reductions with the potential for increasing the national deficit, driven by a lack of substantial cuts in government spending.
Proposals from Candidates Trump and Harris
Donald Trump's tax proposals include extending the existing TCJA provisions and reinstating state and local tax deductions, with projections indicating a massive impact on the deficit if implemented. His plans to further reduce corporate tax rates and exempt various types of income could cumulatively lead to a potential revenue loss between $3.6 trillion and $6.6 trillion over ten years. Conversely, Kamala Harris’s strategy aims to maintain certain tax cuts for those earning under $400,000 while expanding child tax credits and modifying capital gains tax rates, which experts estimate may offer a smaller impact on national deficits. The contrasting approaches reflect differing economic ideologies, where Trump’s strategies may pose higher risks for inflation and deficits compared to Harris's more moderate proposals.
What will happen to the Trump tax cuts from 2017? Many of the measures expire next year giving the next U.S. president a prime opportunity to shape tax policy. Host Carmel Crimmins is joined by U.S. Economics Editor Dan Burns to talk through what Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are proposing and what it could all mean for the world’s largest economy. Plus, we head to Reno to hear how proposals to scrap taxes on tipping from both candidates is going down in a key swing state.
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