Co-hosts Mihir and Felix make predictions for 2024. They discuss the future of OPEC, challenges in achieving inflation targets, potential political pushback against high inflation, and the possibility of a big streaming company acquiring Electronic Arts. They also talk about the difficulties in creating new content, the rise of quantitative trading, and the power of data visualization.
OPEC is predicted to fall apart as the world reduces reliance on oil.
The AI landscape will see shorter leads, longer adoption processes, narrower and deeper impacts.
AI-generated erotic and pornographic content is expected to increase significantly.
Achieving 2% inflation in monetary policy will be challenging and extended.
Society's perception of plastic will shift as it becomes viewed as a hazardous material.
Deep dives
Prediction: OPEC will fall apart by 2024
The speaker predicts that OPEC, the oil cartel, will fall apart by 2024. As the world diversifies its energy sources and reduces its reliance on oil, the volume reduction in oil production will make it difficult for OPEC to keep the cartel intact. While the speaker acknowledges that the prediction is not certain, they believe that OPEC will become a much weaker force in the global economy.
Prediction: Changes in the AI landscape
The speaker predicts that in the AI landscape, things will get shorter, longer, narrower, and deeper. Leads in AI will get shorter, while the productization and adoption process will take longer. The speaker also believes that the specific areas where AI will have an impact will become narrower and deeper, while other areas will be recognized as being outside the reach of AI. Overall, the speaker expects AI to continue to evolve and become increasingly integrated into various aspects of society.
Prediction: Rise in AI-generated explicit content
The speaker predicts that there will be a significant increase in AI-generated erotic and pornographic content. As AI technology becomes more accessible and less restricted, traditional pornographic companies and other niche players may exploit the capabilities of AI to create explicit content. This prediction is based on the historical significance and popularity of pornography on the internet, and the speaker believes that AI-generated content will become dominant in this field.
Prediction: Challenges in monetary policy and the rise of fiscal policy
The speaker predicts that the last mile in monetary policy, specifically achieving 2% inflation, will be long and challenging. They highlight the potential political pressure on central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, due to complex election years. The speaker also suggests that the recent event of bond yield spikes indicates a reemergence of concerns about inflation. They further forecast that fiscal policy will replace the dominance of monetary policy in the next 15 years, leading to significant shifts in economic strategies and priorities.
Prediction: Plastic as the new asbestos
The speaker predicts that society will increasingly view plastic as a hazardous material, akin to asbestos. They note that plastic's omnipresence in daily life, combined with growing concerns about microplastics and health risks, will lead to a reassessment of the material's impact on the environment and human health. While recognizing the usefulness of plastic, the speaker suggests that reliance on trusted brands and a push towards more sustainable alternatives, such as prebiotic drinks, may contribute to the shift away from plastic consumption.
Prediction: Deterioration of search engine results
The speaker predicts that the quality of search engine results, such as Google search, will decline rapidly. They argue that as AI-generated content becomes more prevalent, it will be increasingly difficult for search engines to distinguish between high-quality, verified content and AI-generated content. This could lead to a decline in search result accuracy and an increase in manipulated content. The speaker suggests that relying on trusted, reputable sources like Wikipedia may become more common as consumers seek reliable information amidst the growing challenges in search engine optimization and content manipulation.
Prediction: Shake-up in quantitative trading and algorithmic trading
The speaker predicts that the world of quantitative trading and algorithmic trading will face a shake-up due to potential scandals and regulatory crackdowns. They suggest that the actions of these trading funds will undergo increased scrutiny, questioning their impact on market momentum and detachment from fundamentals. While acknowledging the dominance of these funds, the speaker anticipates that a scandal or regulatory intervention may prompt a closer examination of their strategies and contributions to market volatility.
Prediction: Implications of the Apple Vision Pro
The speaker predicts that the Apple Vision Pro, an advanced augmented reality device, will receive significant attention and interest. They suggest that the product could surpass expectations and find consumer demand as a content consumption device, rivaling traditional screens like iPads. While acknowledging that widespread adoption may not occur immediately, the speaker believes that the Apple Vision Pro's potential for providing a superior visual experience and integrating with real-world surroundings could reshape the way individuals consume content.
Prediction: Revival of Disney due to Percy Jackson content
The speaker predicts that the release of new Disney content based on the Percy Jackson series will lead to a resurgence of interest in Disney. This prediction is based on the belief that the Percy Jackson content will be highly popular and attract a significant audience. The speaker anticipates that this success will result in a broader revival of Disney as a brand and entertainment powerhouse.
Prediction: Exploration of Anaximander's contributions to science
The speaker highlights Carlo Rovelli's book on Anaximander as a fascinating exploration of the Greek thinker's contributions to science. Anaximander is portrayed as a visionary figure who laid the foundation for scientific thinking, including concepts related to evolution and natural laws. The speaker praises Rovelli's writing style and the book's focus on a lesser-known figure whose ideas resonate with the origins of scientific thought.
What’s in store for 2024? Mihir and Felix are back with their celebrated predictions episode. Will OPEC implode? Are quant funds in trouble? What’s Argentina’s future? Can inflation in the U.S. really sink to 2%? Is plastic the new asbestos? Who will acquire Electronic Arts? Is AIML a verb? Listen in as the hosts (foolishly) predict what the new year will bring.
