Fantasy football analyst Scott Connor joins JJ to discuss the running back landscape, dynasty roster construction, investing in likable players, and more. The conversation covers leveraging variance, analyzing the fantasy potential of Kyron Williams, optimal roster construction strategy, the value of young quarterbacks, team-building strategies, wide receivers in the upcoming class, and analyzing the advanced metrics of John Datson.
Optimizing roster construction involves prioritizing slimming at the receiver position and dedicating more spots to backup running backs and quarterbacks.
Drafting quarterbacks in super flex leagues requires understanding your league's roster construction and trend, balancing a solid quarterback group without overinvesting.
Investing too much in quarterbacks outside the dead zone may not provide enough return on investment, while securing quarterbacks within the dead zone could offer more value in terms of roster construction and potential trade opportunities.
Deep dives
Optimal roster construction prioritizes slimming at receiver
In order to optimize roster construction, it is recommended to prioritize slimming at the receiver position. This means focusing on obtaining a core group of around six receivers that are set and forget options, and not wasting roster spots on extra receivers unless there is a specific mechanism for gaining value from them. By structuring the roster this way, it allows for more spots to be dedicated to backup running backs and quarterbacks, as these positions provide more flexibility and potential value in trades or filling in during bye weeks.
Quarterback strategy in super flex leagues
When it comes to drafting quarterbacks in super flex leagues, the strategy can vary. Some drafts see a run on quarterbacks early, with teams prioritizing having two elite quarterbacks as the cornerstone of their roster. Others may opt for a hero quarterback strategy, where they focus on building a strong roster at other positions and wait until later rounds to select their quarterbacks. The key is understanding the roster construction and draft trends in your specific league, and making sure to strike a balance between securing a solid quarterback group without overinvesting in the position.
The quarterback dead zone and value assessment
The concept of the quarterback dead zone refers to the range of quarterbacks where it becomes less valuable to invest heavily in the position due to a lack of production differentials and potential volatility in job security. This zone typically includes quarterbacks outside of the top 15 to 18 range. It is crucial to assess the expected value and level of job security of quarterbacks when making draft decisions. Investing too much in quarterbacks outside of the dead zone may not provide enough return on investment, while securing quarterbacks within the dead zone could offer more value in terms of roster construction and potential trade opportunities.
Assessing the balance between production and value in dynasty
One of the common mistakes made by dynasty managers is prioritizing perceived safety and job security over potential production. While drafting or acquiring players like Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow may offer a sense of security, it is important to also consider their expected production and value in relation to other options. Striving for optimal production and value involves understanding the range of outcomes and being willing to take calculated risks on players in order to secure potentially higher returns. Making roster decisions solely based on safety and job security may not yield the desired results in the long run.
The Value of Liquidity and Security in Investing
The podcast episode discusses the common misconception of putting too much value in liquidity and security when investing. The speaker argues that excessive focus on these aspects can hinder investment growth and lead to missed opportunities. They suggest that instead of prioritizing the ability to "bail out" in case of failure, one should consider taking risks and starting over if necessary, as it can ultimately lead to higher returns. The speaker emphasizes the importance of aligning investment strategies with the payout structure of the market.
Analyzing Prospects and Understanding their Fit
The podcast episode explores the speaker's process of evaluating prospects, particularly in the context of fantasy football. They admit to being more data-driven than reliant on film analysis, and acknowledge that others excel at prospecting and film evaluation. Their role is to guide people on how prospects fit into dynasty rosters and how to approach roster construction. They discuss the role of draft capital, mentioning that it matters less for certain positions like running back, and emphasize the importance of considering the sentiment, or 'likeability score,' of a prospect within the fantasy football community. They argue that it is essential to consider how a player's popularity may affect their value and trade dynamics in the future.
Scott Connor of Destination Devy and Dynasty Trades in 5 joins JJ to talk about fantasy football's running back landscape, his approach to dynasty roster construction, investing in likable players, and so much more.
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