Probably the scariest, most dreaded term in economics is stagflation. Those who lived through the crisis in the 1970s can attest to this. In short, stagflation is defined as a period of low-to-no economic growth combined with high unemployment and high inflation. It’s a deadly recipe that took extraordinary measures to break the last time we experienced this phenomenon, and the method used back then is still highly contested territory.
If you’ve heard the term more often in recent months, it’s because some economists are beginning to fear a resurgence of stagflation due to the policies of the Trump administration. So today we’re doing a very deep dive into the economy to discuss the differences between now and the crisis of the ‘70s and show how Trump might be singlehandedly pushing us into an entirely new and preventable stagflation crisis.
Chapters
Intro: 00:01:00
The Phillips Curve: 00:03:34
Unemployment and Labor: 00:17:18
Trump's Conundrum: 00:20:05
Time to Rewind: 00:24:53
Lessons and Insights: 00:30:19
Post Show Musings: 00:42:28
Outro: 00:54:13
Resources
Investopedia: What Is Stagflation, What Causes It, and Why Is It Bad?
The New York Times: Strong Dollar vs. Weak Dollar
Office of the Historian: Oil Embargo, 1973–1974
Federal Reserve History: The Great Inflation
FRED: Personal Saving Rate
FRED: New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units
FRED: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food in U.S. City Average
UNFTR Episode Resources
Housing First: Non-Negotiable #1.
Building a Civilian Labor Corps: Bracing for the AI Job Apocalypse. Non-Negotiable #2.
The Global Order of Money: How Exactly Does It Make the World Go ’Round?
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