Narendra Modi discusses the upcoming 2024 Indian elections and the state of Indian democracy with Kenneth Bo Nielsen, Arild Engelsen Ruud, and Francesca Jensenius. They explore the challenges of engaging voters, Modi's popularity amidst concerns, and the potential impacts of his victory on Indian politics.
India's democracy faces challenges with declining values, crackdown on dissent, and media independence compromised.
Narendra Modi's enduring popularity in Indian politics stems from strategic messaging, adaptability as a leader, and broad voter appeal.
Deep dives
Autocratisation of India's Democracy
India's democratic process, with close to 1 billion eligible voters, is the world's largest exercise in democracy. Despite being hailed as the world's largest democracy, recent reports label India as an autocratizing country and an electoral autocracy due to declining democratic values. Freedom of expression has deteriorated, media independence compromised, and the government's crackdown on dissenting voices and civil society poses significant challenges to Indian democracy.
Magnitude of Indian Elections
The Indian national elections exhibit immense scale, with 1 million polling stations and approximately 15 million election officials. Turnout averages between 60-70%, surpassing voting numbers in various countries combined. The financial expenditure, estimated at $14 billion, highlights the monumental nature of India's elections. The BJP, under Modi's leadership, has seen successive victories, indicating a shift in India's political landscape towards a dominant party system.
Modi's Political Popularity
Narendra Modi's enduring popularity in Indian politics defies challenges and controversies surrounding his governance. Despite concerns over economic performance and democratic backsliding, Modi's approval rates remain high, outshining his party's popularity. His adaptability as a leader, shifting public image according to election contexts, coupled with a robust media campaign, contributes significantly to his political success. Despite critiques, his strategic messaging resonates with diverse voter segments, securing his broad appeal and electoral dominance.
What is at stake at the 2024 Indian national elections? And, what can we expect if the incumbent prime minister Narendra Modi wins another five years in office? From April to June 2024, close to one billion Indian voters can cast their ballot at what is set to be the largest democratic exercise in world history. India is often spoken about as the world’s largest democracy, and the current Indian government describes the country as “the mother of democracy”. But there are also indications that Indian democracy is on the decline. Global indices now place India among the top “autocratizing countries” in the world, categorising it as an electoral autocracy. And, under Modi, the space for dissent has narrowed, the freedom of the media been undermined, and religious minorities and oppositional groups in civil society targeted and repressed. In this episode, Kenneth Bo Nielsen talks to Arild Engelsen Ruud and Francesca Jensenius about the 2024 elections and the future of Indian democracy.
Arild Engelsen Ruud is Professor of South Asia Studies at the University of Oslo
Francesca Jensenius is Professor of Political Science at the University of Oslo
Kenneth Bo Nielsen is a social anthropologist based in Oslo, and one of the leaders of the Norwegian Network for Asian Studies.