Former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discusses reacceleration of the US economy. Michael Darda predicts high probability of US recession. Max Kettner highlights bearish market sentiment. Diana Amoa talks about lackluster growth outside the US.
Global disinflation and lackluster growth outside the US make emerging markets attractive diversifiers of portfolios in the current cycle.
Investors should consider diversifying their portfolios away from being overly exposed to China or the US and focus on countries like India and Mexico as strategically important manufacturing hubs.
Deep dives
Importance of Earnings in Supporting Equities
Despite higher interest rates, equities have been supported by strong earnings reported in the last season, especially in the tech sector. This gives investors confidence that companies can generate profits despite higher funding costs.
Disinflation Trend in Emerging Markets
Global disinflation is becoming synchronized across emerging markets, leading to central banks in these economies cutting rates. The disinflationary phase, coupled with lackluster growth outside the US, suggests that emerging markets could lead developed markets in central bank policy. This makes them attractive diversifiers of portfolios in the current cycle.
Near-Shoring and Multipolarity
As supply chain dynamics shift and geopolitical fragmentation occurs, investors should consider diversifying their portfolios away from being overly exposed to China or the US. Countries with a more neutral positioning, such as India and Mexico, may command a premium as they benefit from this near-shoring trend and become strategically important manufacturing hubs.
Challenges and Opportunities with China
Direct investment in China faces uncertainties due to regulatory changes, geopolitical tensions, and domestic issues. However, there are opportunities in sectors like tech. Investors can also look at countries that benefit indirectly from China's stimulus measures, such as EM commodity exporters and regions experiencing a recovery in tourism.
Former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard says the biggest question right now is of reacceleration in the US economy. Michael Darda of Roth MKM says the probability of a recession happening in the US are high. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi Asset Strategist says market sentiment has turned bearish over the last two weeks.Diana Amoa of Kirkoswald Asset Management says growth outside the US is lackluster. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance