We need to talk about Turkey - with Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak & Nadav Eyal
Jan 13, 2025
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Guests Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarojak, a Turkish politics expert, and Nadav Eyal, a seasoned journalist, dive into Turkey's evolving role in the Middle East post-Assad's regime collapse. They discuss Erdogan's rise to power, exploring his strategic maneuvers and the shift in Turkey-Israel relations since the 1990s. The conversation highlights historical ties between Turkish and Jewish communities, Turkey's ambitions in Syria, and the complex geopolitical landscape that both nations navigate, shaping their future interactions.
Turkey's emergence as a dominant regional power post-Assad's regime collapse poses new challenges and opportunities for Israel's security and diplomatic strategies.
Erdogan's shift from a moderate leader to an assertive neo-Ottoman figure raises concerns over his ambitions and Turkey's influence in the Middle East.
Deep dives
Turkey's Rising Influence in the Middle East
Turkey has emerged as a dominant force in the geopolitics of the Middle East following the collapse of Assad's regime in Syria. The country seeks to consolidate its power and establish a Sunni-led axis of influence, distinct from the declining Shia-led axis. This shift presents both challenges and opportunities for Israel, which fears that the Golan Heights may become a focal point for Sunni resistance movements, drawing in hostile forces that could threaten its security. Turkey's historical ties to the region, rooted in its Ottoman past, fuel aspirations to reclaim influence and resources in territories previously under its control.
Assessing Israel's Security Concerns
Israel is grappling with the evolving dynamics in the region, particularly regarding the potential rise of a Sunni jihadist axis of resistance. This concern is heightened by the fear that Turkey's support for figures like Jolani could further destabilize the region, allowing them to challenge Israeli interests. The Israeli defense apparatus is compelled to adapt to this new reality, acknowledging that the previous Shia threats could be supplanted by more radical Sunni groups gaining power. Strategies to counter these emerging threats involve reevaluating security protocols and enhancing intelligence operations to monitor developments closely.
Erdogan's Calculated Political Maneuvering
Erdogan has evolved from a moderate leader to a proponent of neo-Ottomanism, leveraging historical narratives to bolster nationalist sentiment in Turkey. Initially perceived as a stabilizing figure, his foreign policy has shifted to embrace more assertive and sometimes confrontational approaches toward Israel and other regional powers. This transformation has sparked speculation about Erdogan's true ambitions and the implications for Turkey's relationships in the Middle East. Denouncing Israel during conflicts has become a tool for consolidating domestic support, demonstrating how Erdogan strategically utilizes these situations for political gain.
The Implications for Regional Stability
The ongoing shifts in alliances and power dynamics raise significant questions about the future of stability in the region. As Turkey seeks to expand its foothold in Syria, concerns grow that increased Turkish influence could incite further conflicts involving Israel, particularly as Jolani's leadership gains traction. The interplay between regional powers, shaped by conflicts in Syria and changing alliances, demands careful monitoring by Israeli leaders. The necessity of balancing relationships with other stakeholders, including the Kurdish forces and Western allies, complicates the situation further, potentially impacting the broader geopolitical landscape.
The collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria has created a new geopolitical reality, in which Turkey has emerged as a dominant regional power, both militarily and diplomatically. For Israel, this new reality entails certain risks, but also opportunities for cooperation?
What is Turkey’s next move - and what are Erdogan’s ambitions? And how is Israel preparing for this new order?
To help us understand, our guests are Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak and Call me Back regular Nadav Eyal.
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, who moved to Israel from Turkey, is a researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, and an expert on contemporary Turkish politics and society. Yanarocak is the editor of Turkeyscope, and a member of the Middle East Network Analysis Desk. He is a frequent guest on Israeli media, where he regularly appears to discuss contemporary Turkish issues.
Nadav Eyal is a columnist for Yediiot. He is one of Israel’s leading journalists. Eyal has been covering Middle-Eastern and international politics for the last two decades for Israeli radio, print and television news.
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