Is the GenAI Glass Half Full Or Empty with Deirdre Bosa, Michael Dempsey & Jonathan Godwin
Sep 25, 2024
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Deirdre Bosa, the host of CNBC's TechCheck, joins the discussion on the shifting dynamics of AI investments, revealing insights on Google's and Amazon's backing of Anthropic. She critiques a New York Times article on generative AI's future. Michael Dempsey and Jonathan Godwin delve into their innovative use of AI in advanced materials and climate tech. The conversation also explores skepticism around AI revenue, overcapacity in infrastructure, and major tech firms' evolving strategies, prompting a debate on whether the AI glass is half full or empty.
The podcast discusses the rapid revenue growth plans of companies like Anthropic and OpenAI amidst skepticism about sustaining high valuations.
Experts compare the current AI investment climate with past technology bubbles, highlighting concerns over potential over-investment and disillusionment ahead.
Orbital Materials' innovative use of AI aims to tackle environmental challenges, showcasing technology's role in advancing sustainable materials and economic growth.
Deep dives
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Anthropic's Valuation and Growth
Recent discussions highlighted Anthropic's expectations for significant revenue growth, projecting about a billion dollars in revenue for 2024—an increase of over a thousand percent year over year. Despite their impressive valuation aligned with major investments from companies like Google and Amazon, there's skepticism about whether this growth can sustain its valuation. The ongoing dialogue centers on the sustainability of their business model and whether increasing revenue will match even higher valuations in the face of rising competition. This scenario reflects broader concerns about the AI sector, as many companies seek to capitalize on the AI boom while balancing operational realities.
Skepticism Surrounding the AI Boom
Amidst the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence advancements, some experts caution against the similarities between the current AI landscape and past technology bubbles, such as that of the dot-com era. Reports suggest that while there's undeniable potential in AI, concerns about over-investment and the actual realization of returns loom large. Comparisons have been drawn between AI and past speculative investments, suggesting a period of disillusionment might be on the horizon as companies evaluate their growth trajectories. It underscores the reality that while AI holds transformative potential, not all businesses in this space will succeed.
Developments in Generative AI and Foundational Models
The podcast emphasizes the growing trend of both established companies and startups developing general AI models and foundational technology for various applications. Companies like Microsoft are exploring creating their own models to reduce reliance on third-party providers like OpenAI, as they navigate the unique challenges posed by the competitive landscape. This shift indicates a deeper strategy by companies to harness the transformative power of AI while safeguarding their interests. The dynamic nature of the industry suggests that businesses must remain adaptable and innovative to stay relevant in a rapidly evolving market.
Orbital Materials: Leveraging AI for Sustainable Solutions
Orbital Materials aims to harness AI for developing advanced materials and tackling significant environmental challenges, such as sustainable aviation fuels. The company utilizes proprietary modeling systems to accelerate the discovery and optimization of new materials. Their ambition involves moving beyond traditional industries and addressing pressing global needs through innovative technological solutions. This blend of AI and material science represents a critical frontier in achieving both economic growth and sustainability, demonstrating the potential for technology to effect positive change in the world.
Dan Nathan is joined by Deirdre Bosa, host of CNBC's TechCheck, to discuss the latest in AI investments, including Google and Amazon's funding in Anthropic, and how these valuations are evolving. They also banter about a New York Times article scrutinizing the future impact of generative AI. The episode highlights the rapid revenue growth in companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, growing interest and skepticism towards AI from big players like Goldman Sachs, with insights from Jim Covello. The conversation touches on consumer applications of AI, such as the use of models from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic by platforms like Perplexity. Bosa explores the strategic moves by Microsoft to train its own AI models and the broader implications for the AI market.
After the break, Dan Nathan is joined by Michael Dempsey, managing partner at Compound VC, and Jonathan Godwin of Orbital Materials, discussing their innovative approach using AI for advanced materials and climate tech. The episode wraps with a look at potential overcapacity in AI infrastructure and shifting strategies in major tech firms.
Further Reading
Will A.I. Be a Bust? A Wall Street Skeptic Rings the Alarm. (NYT)