Regional Reverberations from Israel’s War on Hamas
Nov 3, 2023
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Kim Ghattas and Steven A. Cook analyze the regional implications of the Israel-Hamas war, the potential for a broader conflict in the Middle East, Qatar's role in mediating the conflict, Egypt's concerns about Palestinian refugees. They also introduce a new podcast called 'Disorder' and discuss the era of global enduring disorder.
The Israel-Hamas war has the potential to spark broader regional conflicts, involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The ongoing conflict threatens the recent diplomatic progress made through the Abraham Accords, particularly the normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Deep dives
Impact of Israel's war on Hamas in the Middle East
Israel's war on Hamas is causing a ripple effect across the Middle East. There are concerns that the conflict could expand to involve Hezbollah in Lebanon or Houthi rebels in Yemen, both backed by Iran. The public mood in countries like Jordan, Egypt, and Tehran is tense, with protests expressing anger at the situation in Gaza. This could potentially jeopardize recent diplomatic advances made through the Abraham Accords, as discussions about normalization with Saudi Arabia were ongoing. The broader Middle East is on edge, and the consequences of the war on regional stability are being closely watched.
Tension in Lebanon and Hezbollah's stance
Beirut is experiencing tension and uncertainty due to its history of conflicts and its proximity to the current war between Israel and Hamas. Hezbollah and the IDF have been engaging in skirmishes in southern Lebanon, but both sides seem to want to contain the fighting to a certain extent. Hezbollah has reasons to support Hamas but also wants to avoid a full-blown war that would not be beneficial to Iran, their main backer. The Lebanese populace is anxiously anticipating Hezbollah's next move and potential involvement in the conflict.
Concerns about regional conflict and the West Bank
There are concerns about the possibility of a broader regional conflict stemming from the Israel-Hamas war. Hezbollah's involvement and the situation in Lebanon are key factors. The West Bank is another area of concern, as tensions are rising due to settler violence and potential involvement of Hamas activists. The Palestinian Authority's limited influence and the IDF's tolerance of settler violence raise the risk of a rising conflict. The West Bank and the North are two fronts that could potentially escalate the situation. Arab states are closely monitoring the situation, and there is a need for attention and caution in those areas.
Regional implications on diplomatic relations
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas is putting pressure on the recent diplomatic progress made through the Abraham Accords. The potential expansion of the war and the public anger in the region may hinder the normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Qatar's role in negotiating the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas adds complexity to the situation. There are uncertainties about the future of Israel's relations with Arab states, as they navigate the impact of the war on their domestic politics and regional stability.
What does the Israel-Hamas war mean for the region and the world? That’s what’s on the minds of policymakers as the conflict enters a new phase with the start of Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza. Experts Kim Ghattas and Steven A. Cook share their analysis with host Ravi Agrawal.
Ghattas is a journalist based in Beirut and the author of Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East. Cook is a regular FP columnist and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.