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Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Stocks Could Easily Plunge 20% Or More In 2025 | David Hay & Jeff Dicks
Oct 27, 2024
David Hay, Chief Investment Officer at Evergreen Gavekal, and Jeff Dick, Managing Director there, dive into the shifting market landscape. They unpack the implications of rising long-term bond yields despite central banks cutting interest rates. The duo discusses potential market volatility in 2025, raising concerns over high valuations and geopolitical risks. With insights on government spending and emerging market debt, they emphasize the need for diverse investment strategies and the importance of adapting portfolios for current economic uncertainties.
01:11:06
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Quick takeaways
- The historical pattern of market performance indicates a potential peak-to-trough decline of 21.4% following strong years, urging caution.
- Current economic indicators suggest a stable near-term outlook under a 'no landing' scenario, supporting ongoing consumer purchasing power and growth.
Deep dives
Market Performance Trends
The discussion notes a trend where markets usually finish the year strong following strong performances, as seen in past years like 2014, 2018, and 2020. However, the episode highlights the average peak-to-trough decline of approximately 21.4% that often follows such strong years, suggesting the possibility of increased volatility in the upcoming year. The experts emphasize the importance of being prepared for a potential downturn, especially considering the historical patterns observed in equity markets. Therefore, while optimism exists for the current market momentum, caution is advised for future asset allocation strategies.
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