Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 4, 2025
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Apr 4, 2025 
In this engaging discussion, Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, tackle the March jobs report and its implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. They emphasize the resilience of the U.S. labor market amid economic challenges and the potential risks of delayed inflation management. Additionally, they explore the impact of rising tariffs on U.S. trade, market fluctuations, and the strength of the dollar, offering keen insights into today's economic landscape.
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Inflation and Fed Policy
- Focus on the 0.3% monthly earnings growth, which isn't consistent with lower inflation.
- Fed needs "air cover" on inflation before making predicted cuts, suggesting a "wait and see" approach.
Economy's Underlying Strength
- The current jobs report suggests the U.S. economy's underlying structure is strong.
- The economy can withstand short-term challenges if further self-inflicted wounds are avoided.
Inflation and Tariffs
- "Transitory" inflation may not hold true due to the tariffs' scale and varying impact.
- The Fed will watch inflation expectations, anchored by recent experiences, which differ from 2018.