Alex Nowrasteh, Vice President for Economic and Social Policy Studies at the Cato Institute and an immigration and trade policy expert, delves into the implications of a potential second term for Donald Trump. He discusses the notable risks and downsides associated with Trump's return to power, while also highlighting potential benefits over a Kamala Harris administration. Nowrasteh explores anticipated policy changes on immigration and healthcare, as well as the complexities of fiscal policy and entitlement reform in a future Trump administration.
A second Trump term may lead to significant energy policy changes, promoting fossil fuel exploration and deregulation of stricter environmental policies.
The anticipated immigration and trade policies under Trump are likely to reflect a continuation of restrictive measures and a protectionist approach.
Deep dives
Potential Benefits of a Second Trump Presidency
A second Trump presidency could bring several advantages compared to a Kamala Harris administration, primarily due to the president's significant unilateral power through executive orders. Trump is expected to promote fossil fuel exploration and extractive policies, likely revoking numerous stringent regulations under previous administrations, such as those concerning greenhouse gas emissions. There may be a resurgence of natural gas exports and potential deregulation in the nuclear energy sector, highlighting a favorable stance towards energy independence. Additionally, significant changes in federal affirmative action policies could occur, potentially influencing many private-sector hiring practices linked to federal contracts.
Concerns About Immigration Policy
The outlook for immigration policy under a second Trump presidency appears largely unfavorable, reflecting his earlier administration's approaches. Trump holds the authority to significantly limit legal immigration and is likely to appoint individuals aligned with his past views, which tended to favor restrictions. Historical actions, such as reducing the growth of illegal immigration without addressing its overall population, suggest a continuation of stringent measures. Additionally, trade policy under Trump may involve reinstating tariffs and adopting a protectionist stance towards foreign nations, signaling potential economic implications.
Fiscal Policy Challenges and Opportunities
Fiscal policy under a second Trump term presents a blend of challenges and potential reforms, particularly concerning entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security. Despite Trump's previous pledges to protect these entitlements, pressures from expanding debt and impending fiscal deadlines may compel a reevaluation of spending strategies. There is the possibility of positive changes to tax policy linked to key legislative expirations and a Republican majority in Congress. Nevertheless, without addressing entitlement reforms, substantial cuts to government size or even slowing its growth may prove difficult, leaving important decisions ahead.
For freedom-enhancing policy, a second Trump term provides obvious, large downsides and risks, but there are likely policy upsides to a second Trump term. Alex Nowrasteh explains what Donald Trump might do in his now-secured second term.