The Horn The Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff
Jan 15, 2026
In this discussion, Michael Woldemariam, an expert on Ethiopian and Horn of Africa politics from the University of Maryland, delves into the tense relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea. He explores why, despite escalating rhetoric, war has not yet erupted. Michael highlights Ethiopia's aspirations for sea access and Eritrea's historical insecurities. He also dissects the impact of regional dynamics, including Saudi-UAE rivalry, and suggests practical measures to de-escalate tensions. Tune in for an insightful analysis of a complex geopolitical landscape!
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Escalation Across Multiple Theaters
- Tension between Eritrea and Ethiopia has escalated from shadowboxing to explicit mutual accusations.
- Both states are preparing militarily and courting allies across multiple theaters including Tigray, Afar, Amhara and Sudan.
Uncertainty Limits Immediate War
- War remains uncertain because both sides face international and military constraints that raise unpredictable calculations.
- Key risks are inadvertent escalation and preemptive security spirals if either side misreads intent.
Tigray’s Fragmentation Creates Unpredictability
- Tigray's politics have re-fragmented after the old TPLF guard reasserted influence and new parties formed.
- That fragmentation both invites external proxies and makes reliable mobilisation by any actor in Tigray hard to predict.