Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Lacy Hunt: Prepare For Recession, The Fed's Optimism Is Wrong

Feb 1, 2024

Renowned economist Lacy Hunt discusses the current state of the global economy, challenges for central planning authorities, impact of work-from-home on commercial real estate, potential defaults on buy now, pay later plans, and the disproportionate impact of inflation on different socioeconomic classes. The importance of working with a professional financial advisor in navigating the complex economic environment is also highlighted.

01:27:53

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Episode guests

Lacy Hunt

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Quick takeaways

High inflation can lead to a recession, posing challenges for the economy.

Consumer spending boom fueled by debt financing, increasing vulnerability for consumers.

Negative net national saving and declining standard of living raise concerns about the future trajectory of the economy.

Deep dives

Challenges and uncertainties remain in the economy

Despite a strong year in 2023 for the economy, challenges persist. The lesson of history suggests that high inflation can lead to a recession, and this process could play out for a long period. While the US economy has continued to grow, not all indicators are consistent. There are divergences in employment measures, and there is a record dispersion between GDP and GDI. While some indicators show strength, deeper analysis reveals underlying problems domestically.

Challenges and Uncertainties in the US Economic Outlook

01:25

Debt Impacts on Future Spending

01:37

Negative Net National Saving and Its Deleterious Effects

01:18

Layoff Indicators and Timing

01:19

Introduction

2min

Assessing the Global Economy and Financial Markets

25min

Challenges for Central Planning Authorities and the High Office Vacancy Rate

2min

Impact of Work-from-Home on Commercial Real Estate and Hiring Plans

4min

The Pressure Release Valve and Potential Defaults

26min

The Impact of Inflation on Different Socioeconomic Classes

24min

Upcoming FOMC Announcement, Axel Merck's Response, and Thoughtful Money Conference Promotion

2min

The Importance of Working with a Professional Financial Advisor

2min

The S&P and Nasdaq are back to all-time highs. And the recently-released Q4 GDP data beat analysts expectations, positively, by a long shot. So are we in the clear? Is the soft landing camp being proven right? Have we been able to side step the Lag Effects so many expected from the Fed's aggressive campaigns of rates hikes and Quantitative Tightening? Is inflation indeed on its way to being tamed this year? For answers, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #inflation #deflation

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Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Lacy Hunt: Prepare For Recession, The Fed's Optimism Is Wrong

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Challenges and uncertainties remain in the economy

Consumer spending is driven by debt finance

Economic challenges for corporate America

Concerns about future trajectory and potential societal impact

Main Idea 1

Main Idea 2

Challenges and Uncertainties in the US Economic Outlook

Debt Impacts on Future Spending

Negative Net National Saving and Its Deleterious Effects

Layoff Indicators and Timing

Get the Snipd
podcast app

AI-powered
podcast player

Discover
highlights

Save any
moment

Share
& Export

AI-powered
podcast player

Discover
highlights

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Lacy Hunt: Prepare For Recession, The Fed's Optimism Is Wrong

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Challenges and uncertainties remain in the economy

Consumer spending is driven by debt finance

Economic challenges for corporate America

Concerns about future trajectory and potential societal impact

Main Idea 1

Main Idea 2

Challenges and Uncertainties in the US Economic Outlook

Debt Impacts on Future Spending

Negative Net National Saving and Its Deleterious Effects

Layoff Indicators and Timing

Get the Snipdpodcast app

AI-poweredpodcast player

Discoverhighlights

Save anymoment

Share& Export

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Discoverhighlights

Get the Snipd
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moment

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