Marketplace Tariff fears likely shrunk the GDP
19 snips
Apr 29, 2025 Economists anticipate a rare GDP contraction due to tariff-induced anxiety rather than actual tariffs. The challenges of hiring air traffic controllers amid a federal workforce cut reveal a stressed job market. In Wyoming, a mechanic's story highlights the resilience required after unexpected job losses in the trona mining sector. Meanwhile, younger workers are embracing mini retirements, reflecting a cultural shift toward prioritizing work-life balance as they navigate economic uncertainties.
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Tariff Anxiety Drives Stockpiling
- Businesses stockpiled imports fearing tariffs before implementation, causing record trade deficits.
- After tariffs started, many slowed imports as they wait to see tariff impacts and negotiate costs.
Tariffs Likely Shrunk GDP
- Tariff fears led to record trade deficits, reducing GDP in Q1 before tariffs were enacted.
- Increased costs and uncertainty curb business investment and hiring, slowing economic growth and raising recession risk.
Labor Market Cooling Signs
- Job openings are decreasing and consumer confidence about plentiful jobs is fading.
- This labor market differential signals a likely rising unemployment rate and economic slowdown ahead.