The Contrarian Investor Podcast Tariff Dips Create Buying Opportunities: Petra Bakosova, Hull Tactical
May 13, 2025
Petra Bakosova, a quantitative research expert at Hull Tactical based in Chicago, shares her insights on the intersection of economics and investing. She discusses how recent Federal Reserve decisions and tariffs are shaping market opportunities. Petra emphasizes the importance of active risk allocation and explores the dangers of overfitting in data analysis. Her unique approach incorporates machine learning to predict shifts in the S&P 500 while drawing parallels between blackjack and strategic risk management in investing.
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Tariffs Create Artificial Inflation
- Tariffs create an artificial inflation independent of low unemployment or booming economy.
- This inflation constrains Fed's ability to respond, potentially causing real economic problems.
Labor Market Not Weak Yet
- Current labor market data do not show weakness despite Fed's concerns about risks.
- Employment claims and payroll numbers indicate a steady economy without immediate negative signals.
Tariffs Distort Economic Indicators
- Tariffs distort macroeconomic indicators like manufacturing and shipping data.
- These distortions complicate market interpretation and reflect temporary or artificial shifts in business activity.