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Sinica Podcast
Live from Chicago: Decoding China — China’s economic miracle interrupted?
Oct 19, 2023
Chang-Tai Hsieh, Damien Ma, and Lizzi Lee discuss the state of the Chinese economy, the real estate sector's role in the crisis, management during times of crisis, a potential debt crisis in China, and the right US policy towards China.
55:34
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Quick takeaways
- China's economic challenges stem from a lack of confidence among households and resource misallocation in the housing sector.
- The US should adopt a constructive approach towards China's economic troubles and recognize the interconnectedness of both countries' growth for global stability.
Deep dives
China's economic challenges and the need for resilience
China is currently facing economic challenges, including a pessimistic outlook and a lack of confidence among households. There has been a reallocation problem in the housing sector, leading to over-expansion and resource misallocation. The government needs to address this issue without doubling down on stimulus and exacerbating the problem. Lessons can be learned from China's previous reallocation programs, such as the 'grasp the large, let go of the small' program in 1998, which led to short-term pain but eventually allowed for the emergence of private firms and economic growth. The key is to find a balance between short-term pain and long-term structural adjustments to sustain growth. China's vision for the future involves resilience and a focus on becoming a leading manufacturing nation, attracting global supply chain ecosystems and exporting products globally.
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