COREY BRADSHAW: Are humans going extinct? (And how soon?)
Sep 10, 2024
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Corey Bradshaw, a global ecologist and author, reveals that humanity is on the brink of a mass extinction event. He discusses the paradox of overpopulation versus declining birth rates and their implications for resources and wildlife. With Australia facing the highest mammal extinction rate, he highlights the impact of non-native predators and the urgent need for responsible family planning. Bradshaw emphasizes the importance of honest conversations about climate change, resilience, and fostering a hopeful community for future generations.
Human activity is the primary driver of the current mass extinction event, threatening biodiversity at unprecedented rates.
Declining fertility rates in developed nations could lead to significant societal instability due to an aging population and workforce reduction.
The loss of biodiversity undermines ecosystem stability and essential services, posing critical risks to human survival and food security.
Deep dives
The Emergence of Mass Extinction
Current projections indicate that we are experiencing a mass extinction event at an unprecedented rate, potentially the most catastrophic in Earth's history. Unlike past extinctions driven by natural disasters, the current crisis is primarily driven by human activity, including habitat destruction and climate change. The phenomena of biodiversity loss underscores the severity of the situation, with species disappearing at rates that may reach 75% in the coming centuries. This situation is exacerbated by the accelerated pace of environmental changes that many species cannot adapt to quickly enough, causing cascading losses throughout ecosystems.
Understanding Fertility Collapse
Fertility rates are declining globally, particularly in developed nations, leading to concerns about potential population drops in the future. Several factors are contributing to this trend, including social, economic, and cultural shifts that influence family planning and reproductive choices. While some may view this decline as beneficial for mitigating resource consumption, it is essential to understand the complexities involved. Models predict a peak population of around 10 billion followed by a rapid decrease, which could lead to significant economic implications and societal instability as the aging demographic confronts a decreasing workforce.
Interconnectedness of Species and Human Survival
Biodiversity plays a crucial role in maintaining ecosystem stability, which directly impacts human survival. The loss of species affects essential services such as pollination, water filtration, and disease regulation, creating a precarious situation for agriculture and food security. The interrelationships between species mean that the extinction of one can precipitate further losses in a cascading effect that threatens entire ecosystems. As humans heavily rely on these natural systems, the ongoing extinction crisis poses significant risks to our quality of life and survival in the coming decades.
Impacts of Climate Change on Extinction Rates
Climate change is one of the primary drivers of current extinction events, with rising temperatures outpacing the ability of species to adapt. As global temperatures continue to increase, species face challenges such as shifting habitat ranges and altered food availability. This rapid pace of change limits organisms' ability to adapt, making many particularly vulnerable to extinction. Furthermore, the resultant habitat loss due to climate impacts compounds the threats faced by species, significantly undermining biodiversity and ecological functions.
The Human Response and Call to Action
There are actionable steps individuals and societies can take to mitigate the impending crises of extinction and fertility collapse. Promoting responsible family planning and addressing child mortality rates in developing nations are critical components for stabilizing populations. Additionally, reducing food waste and transitioning towards sustainable agricultural practices can significantly lessen the environmental burden. Overall, active participation in policy change, elevating awareness of the climate crisis, and fostering resilience among communities can help promote a more sustainable future.
Professor Corey Bradshaw (global ecologist; author) has spent a career studying species populations and biodiversity loss and has the starkest of messages for humanity: we are in our own mass extinction event. Debate rages as to whether humans have an overpopulation problem or are in a fertility collapse, and which is more likely to take us down.
The director of the Global Ecology Lab at Flinders University talks us through the devasting finer points of this divide. We also cover why Australia has the highest mammalian extinction rate in the world, why we should be having one less child, what happens when bees die out, and the importance of supporting anyone trying to ban political donations. This conversation is a hard one, but like many in this space, Corey has a philosophy for living fully and joyously with the truth he feels compelled to share: Life is going to get far shittier than we can imagine; our noble obligation is to make it a bit less shitty.
SHOW NOTES
Here’s the chapter in my book where I explain in full how fertility collapse is playing out. A REMINDER!! Corey will be joining the comments and is happy to answer any questions you have. You’ll need to post them in the comment section of this post.
Here’s where you can get started with the Book Serialisation (Put Table of contents).