Onramp Bitcoin Media Fidelity’s Chris Kuiper: Bonds Are Broken & Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is Dead
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Sep 5, 2025 Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, tackles the shifting landscape of Bitcoin investing. He argues that traditional four-year market cycles are fading as institutional interest surges, highlighting an era of record ETF flows and increased advisor engagement. Kuiper discusses the challenges faced by finance professionals in adapting to Bitcoin’s unique volatility and its implications for portfolio strategies amidst changing macroeconomic conditions. He also reflects on the evolving relationship between Bitcoin and gold as alternative assets.
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Four-Year Halving Cycle Is Broken
- The classic four-year halving cycle appears broken this cycle due to ETP demand pulling returns forward and removing the usual post-halving blow-off top.
- Cycles will still exist but no longer follow a predictable four-year clock.
ETPs Pulled Forward Massive Demand
- Bitcoin ETP launches far exceeded expectations and produced record flows, proving strong latent demand among investors.
- That scale of demand implies structural, not accidental, investor interest.
Advisors Are Now Leading ETF Filers
- 13F filings show advisors are now the largest filer category, signaling true advisory adoption beyond hedge fund basis trades.
- Presence of major endowments and pensions reduces career risk and opens the door for follow-on institutional allocations.