Mike Singleton of Invictus Research - Macro-Economy and Market Dynamics

Jun 20, 2023

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Comprehending the interplay between the macro-economy and market movements can be challenging for investors. Yet, it is a pursuit that holds immense significance in today's complex financial landscape. With its multifaceted indicators and trends, the macro-economy is a powerful compass, guiding investors toward informed decision-making. By grasping the fundamental forces at play, investors can better gauge their investments' potential risks and rewards.

In this episode, Rusty and Robyn talk with Mike Singleton, Senior Analyst and Principal at Invictus Research. Mike had the opportunity to work for several years with Broad Run Investment Management, where he spent most of his time conducting deep, fundamental diligence on the highest-quality companies he could find. Since then, most of his time has been spent researching the economy at-large and its relationship with the liquid asset markets.

Providing institutional-grade macroeconomic research to a wide range of clients, Mike talks about his outlook for the macro-economy, what that means for the market, and his technical analysis of the market price movement. He also speaks about how investors should consider asset allocation, stock bonds, real assets, and cash when building their portfolios.

Key Takeaways

[02:56] - What inspired Mike to enter the wealth management industry?
[05:37] - What Invictus means by its tagline, “Macro Made Simple.”
[06:42] - Mike's investment philosophy.
[07:42] - Mike's technical analysis of the market price movement.
[10:52] - How Mike assesses real economic growth.
[11:50] - Mike's outlook on inflation.
[12:52] - How artificial intelligence impacts economic growth and inflation.
[14:53] - Mike’s fiscal and monetary policy outlook.
[16:56] - How the presidential election affects the economy markets policy.
[20:48] - Mike's outlook for the near-term stock and bond markets.
[24:46] - Mike's forecast for real assets.
[26:02] - How investors should think about asset allocation, stock bonds, real assets, and cash when building their portfolios.
[27:35] - Alternative investments that suit the current market environment.
[28:42] - Mike's favorite investment idea.
[29:22] - How Mike stays mentally and physically healthy to perform at his best.
[30:52] - The people Mike is grateful to on a professional level.
[32:15] - Mike's recommendations for content.

Quotes

[05:47] - "One of the things that deter retail or professional investors from integrating a top-down or macro perspective into their investment process is that it has a reputation for being extremely complicated, esoteric, and difficult to understand. And there are certainly a lot of macro analysts and public figures that make it seem that way." ~ Mike Singleton

[09:06] - "Many people think that markets move randomly, that they're disconnected from the fundamentals, or that the Fed has destroyed rational price discovery. But the truth is, real trending moves in markets almost always reflect real fundamental trends. And that's not just a theory." ~ Mike Singleton

[26:18] - "It's generally a good idea to play defense rather than offense when growth is slowing. That means having a net at the low end of whatever you are comfortable with." ~ Mike Singleton

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