Howard Coombs, Director of the Queen’s Centre for International Defence Policy and a retired Canadian Armed Forces member, discusses provocative ideas about U.S.-Canada relations. He explores the possibility of a U.S. invasion and the complex military dynamics at play. Coombs analyzes both historical and modern tactics, emphasizing Canada’s vulnerabilities to economic warfare. He also considers the potential for Canadian resistance against overwhelming military power and the urgent need for Canada to reassess its defense strategy to protect its sovereignty.
A theoretical U.S. invasion of Canada would prioritize minimizing infrastructure damage and civilian casualties based on historical military strategies.
Economic warfare is a growing reality, with Canada needing to enhance its industrial independence to resist U.S. influence and pressures.
Deep dives
Theoretical U.S. Military Invasion
A potential military invasion of Canada by the United States is considered highly unlikely, given the current political climate and historical context. Past instances of U.S. invasions, such as during the American Revolution and the War of 1812, highlight longstanding tensions between both nations. Although there’s a significant military disparity, with the U.S. forces vastly outnumbering Canadian troops, the operational strategies would likely prioritize minimizing infrastructure damage and civilian casualties. Historical war plans, like the 1920s War Plan Red, illustrate how U.S. objectives may involve isolating key Canadian cities to disrupt governance and communication.
Economic Warfare as a Greater Threat
The discussion emphasizes the growing reality of economic warfare between Canada and the U.S., which some argue has already commenced. Unlike a traditional military invasion, the U.S. could exert influence through economic pressures, tariffs, and other means, compelling Canada to operate more as a client state. This form of conflict can lead to significant internal social and economic disruptions, much like those seen in nations such as Venezuela. The necessity for Canada to bolster its industrial base and foster independence is highlighted as a primary method of resisting such economic dominance.
Lessons from Historical Occupations
Comparisons with historical occupations stress the complexity of resistance movements within Canada if faced with foreign control. Historical examples, like the collaboration in Vichy France or the resistance in Norway, illustrate diverse responses of populations under foreign rule. While certain groups might resist, public sentiment could vary significantly based on the nature and consequences of the invasion. An effective insurgency would require sustained external support, which Canada lacks due to its geographical and political conditions, stressing the importance of being prepared for all contingencies.
U.S. President Donald Trump has made it clear that he’s serious about wanting Canada to become the 51st state, with his deputy chief of staff saying Trump has made no concessions on the topic. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says that threat is “a real thing”.
Trump says he’d use economic force to drag Canada under America’s boot. But he’s been less delicate about other places, saying he could use military force to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal.
Howard Coombs is director of the Queen’s Centre for International Defence Policy. He’s also a retired member of the Canadian Armed Forces and deployed as a civilian counter-insurgency advisor in Afghanistan.
He talks to Jayme Poisson about what a theoretical takeover of Canada by the U.S. could look like. One that could include tariffs, but also boots on the ground.