MarketWatch - The Housing Market Has One Big Problem
Aug 16, 2023
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MarketWatch real-estate reporter and Redfin CEO discuss dysfunctionality of housing market, impact of interest rates, shift from coastal cities to lower-cost areas, current home prices, climate change effects on home insurance, and converting commercial buildings into residential housing.
The housing market is currently experiencing a stand-off with low inventory and low demand, making it difficult for homebuyers to find affordable options and enter the market.
Glenn Kalman anticipates that mortgage rates will remain near 7% through the end of 2023, with potential concerns for the first half of 2024, and even a slight increase in rates could negatively impact the real estate market and potentially lead to a broader economic recession.
Deep dives
Current State of the Housing Market
According to Glenn Kalman, CEO of Redfin, the housing market is at rock bottom with low sales volume and only those who absolutely have to move are doing so. Home prices are holding up, which has contributed to the lack of affordability. The market is currently experiencing a stand-off, with low inventory and low demand. The lack of a significant correction in prices and the absence of a break in affordability is making it difficult for homebuyers, especially millennials who have been waiting for an opportunity to enter the market.
Consolidation in the Real Estate Sector
Glenn Kalman believes that the real estate sector has undergone significant consolidation in recent years, but there may still be room for further consolidation in the future. While some companies have raised substantial funds, the focus is now shifting towards profitability. Redfin, as an independent brokerage with its own website and employed agents, is an exception to the consolidation trend. However, Kalman suggests that the industry as a whole might see more consolidation as companies prioritize profitability.
Impact of Interest Rates on the Housing Market
Glenn Kalman anticipates that mortgage rates will remain near 7% through the end of 2023, with potential concerns for the first half of 2024. He notes that even a slight increase in rates during the spring home-buying season could negatively impact the market. Higher rates could freeze the real estate market and even lead to a broader economic recession. While Kalman believes rates are unlikely to reach the extreme levels seen in the past, such as 18%, he acknowledges that rates beyond 10% would have significant implications and could further impact the housing market.
Challenges for Home Buyers and Households
The housing market's high home prices and low inventory are affecting household formation and leaving many potential home buyers stuck in rentals for a long time. Affordability remains a challenge for renters and potential buyers alike. Glenn Kalman suggests that the limited number of options for affordable housing is leading to reduced household formation and impacting younger generations' ability to accumulate wealth through homeownership. The inability to afford homes is creating a sense of disenfranchisement among potential buyers, particularly those facing high rents and unaffordable home prices.
Mortgage rates are above 7% as of August, but that's not what's got home buyers down. What's going on in the housing market, what emerging trends are underway, and what next for the real-estate world? Join MarketWatch real-estate reporter Aarthi Swaminathan and Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman to learn more.
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