In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 134: Kaliningrad still at the Crossroads

Feb 11, 2024

Discover the strategic significance and vulnerabilities of the Russian exclave Kaliningrad, its potential reconnection with Europe, and the governor's focus on economic development. Explore the limitations of war games for prediction and the importance of intellectual humility. Engage in analysis and prediction exercises for enjoyment and learning.

54:38

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Quick takeaways

Kaliningrad is a potential hub for reconnecting Russia to the west and Europe, offering historical, economic, and political connections.

Crisis simulation exercises enhance analysis, challenge preconceptions, and foster collaboration by exploring various scenarios.

Deep dives

Kaliningrad: A Distinctive Russian Exclave in the Heart of Europe

Kaliningrad is a unique Russian exclave located in the heart of Europe. Formerly the East Prussian region of Königsberg, it is disconnected from the national mainland but connected by rail, sea, and air routes. Annexed by the Soviets after World War II, Kaliningrad underwent intense industrialization, militarization, and colonization, resulting in a predominantly ethnic Russian population. Despite efforts to capitalize on its location and be a free economic zone, Kaliningrad has faced economic challenges, particularly due to Western sanctions. The region's economic sustainability and its vulnerability to non-military forms of warfare, such as sanctions, raise important questions. Kaliningrad's significance as a potential hub for reconnecting Russia to the west and Europe is also examined, highlighting its potential role in a post-war and post-Putin Russia.

Industry Investment and Security Concerns in Kaliningrad

01:17

Perception and Incentives

01:03

Cultural commingling and the identity of Kaliningrad

01:08

Guard against the influence of social and human algorithms

01:10

Introduction

3min

Kaliningrad: Strategic Significance and Vulnerabilities

28min

The Governor of Kaliningrad: Economic Development vs War Effort

9min

Russian Identity and Crisis Exercises: Lessons from Kaliningrad Crucible

5min

Limitations of War Games as Predictive Tools

8min

Reflections on Analysis and Prediction Exercise

2min

Is the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad a dangerous Russian bastion threatening the West, a point of vulnerability for Moscow, or a potential point of reconnection with Europe? How about a mix of all three -- and also an example of how even figures from a new 'Putin generation' politician can be technocrats rather than zealots.

In the second half, a brief rumination about how simulation exercises like Conducttr's recent Kaliningrad Crucible can help if not prediction, at least analysis.

The Tucker Carlon-Putin interview article in the Sunday Times is here, and my video commentary is here.

Materials on the Kaliningrad Crucible crisis sim are here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.

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