Is there a Trump doctrine? Making sense of US foreign and security policy since Trump’s return to the White House

Contributor(s): Professor Ronald Krebs, Katharine M Millar, Dr Luca Tardelli, Dr Boram Lee | In January 2025, Donald Trump returned to the White House. The ensuing months have been a dizzying blur for American foreign and security policy. Unprecedented U.S. import tariffs have been threatened, reversed, and imposed. Allies have been lectured and harangued, while adversaries have been warmly welcomed. Trump dressed down Ukraine’s president, embraced Russia’s, and then did a U-turn. He stood by Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza, backed its escalation against Hizballah in Lebanon, and joined in bombing Iran, but then pressured Israel into a peace deal. His administration, which seemed to see China as a rival to American dominance, cultivated allies in the Pacific and launched a trade war, but has also signalled a pullback from East Asia and a renewed focus on the Western hemisphere. Amidst the turmoil of the Trump administration, is there an emerging logic to US foreign and security policy? Is a Trump doctrine taking shape?