Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical & Macro Strategy, discusses the challenges of a short dollar call. Wells Fargo Chief Economist talks about the high bar for a September rate hike. UBS US Homebuilders & Building Products Equity Research Analyst highlights labor as the biggest headwind for US homebuilders. Morgan Stanley Investment Management Managing Director expects a strong fourth quarter. Jefferies Senior Equity Research Analyst discusses post-summer state of airline travel.
Airlines are facing deteriorating pricing power in the domestic market, while international flights show stronger pricing momentum, indicating uncertainties and shifts in travel demand post-pandemic.
Airlines are grappling with multiple factors that could impact profitability, including weakening pricing power, rising fuel costs, increasing labor expenses, and potential cost pressures from pilot agreements, posing challenges to profit margins.
Deep dives
Airline pricing power and demand
The pricing power of airlines is experiencing a deterioration, particularly in the domestic market. Corporate travel remains stagnant, while international flights are seeing stronger pricing momentum. The unpredictability of travel demand post-pandemic and the shift towards virtual meetings are causing some uncertainty. However, network carriers like Delta and United, catering to a premium customer base, are better positioned than low-cost carriers.
Factors impacting airline profitability
Airlines are facing multiple factors that could impact profitability. These include the weakening pricing power, rising fuel costs, and increasing labor expenses. In particular, the recent pilot agreement between American Airlines and its pilots has raised concerns about future costs. The effect of these factors on profit margins remains uncertain, but potential cost pressures may negatively impact profitability.
Airline capacity and demand
Airlines are experiencing high load factors, with planes being heavily packed. Load factors have increased since pre-pandemic levels, but certain domestic markets are showing signs of softness due to work-from-home trends. On the international front, demand and capacity are recovering but remain below 2019 levels. The addition of flights, particularly across the Pacific, is expected to contribute to increased demand and pricing.
Future uncertainties and industry developments
Uncertainties remain regarding future travel demand, particularly in the corporate sector. The balance between domestic and international travel, as well as the overall impact of ongoing pandemic-related changes, continues to be a point of concern. Additionally, industry developments such as the emergence of specialty airline sections (e.g., adults-only zones) introduce new dynamics and potential opportunities for the industry.
Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical & Macro Strategy, says it's hard to embrace the short dollar call. Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, says the bar for a September rate hike is high. John Lovallo, UBS US Homebuilders & Building Products Equity Research Analyst, says the supply chains for most US homebuilders have gotten better but the biggest headwind is labor. Andrew Slimmon, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Managing Director & Senior Portfolio Manager, expects a strong fourth quarter. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses the state of airline travel post-summer. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance