Cycles Don’t End Before They Start | David Kalk & Pranav Kanade

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Mar 7, 2025

This week features David Kalk, the founder of Reflexive Capital specializing in crypto strategies, and Pranav Kanade, an analyst at VanEck known for his market insights. They dive into the current turmoil of the crypto market, exploring the unwinding of the basis trade and what's next for Bitcoin and altcoins. The duo discusses the psychology behind trading, investor mindsets, and the significance of macroeconomic factors on market dynamics. They also highlight the shift towards a multi-chain future and how specialized chains could reshape investment behaviors.

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INSIGHT

Crypto Market Cycles

Crypto markets, especially altcoins, experience boom-bust cycles driven by the flow of money and leverage.
These cycles are similar to those seen in emerging markets but more extreme due to rapid capital flow changes.

INSIGHT

Reasons for Altcoin Underperformance

Altcoins haven't performed well this cycle because people recognize the manipulative games and try to predict the cycle.
Increased Bitcoin gambling options reduce the need for altcoins as lottery tickets.

INSIGHT

Is the Cycle Over?

Judging the crypto cycle's end requires nuance, especially for altcoins, as their cycle might not have started.
Significant capital hasn't flowed into altcoins yet, hindering a full cycle.

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Gm! This week we're joined by David Kalk & Pranav Kanade to discuss the current state of crypto markets. We deep dive into the unwinding of the basis trade, what's next for BTC & alt's, the psychology of trading, market reflexivity, is the cycle over & much more. Enjoy!

Follow David: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidkalk/

Follow Pranav: https://x.com/vaneckpk

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:47) State Of The Market

(05:07) Unwinding Of The Basis Trade

(10:40 Ads (ZKSync, Geodnet)

(12:42) Finding The Best Trade In Crypto

(15:42) Reflexivity In Crypto

(19:40) Allocating To Crypto

(22:02) Ads (ZKSync, Geodnet)

(24:04) Why Have Alt’s Underperformed?

(28:08) Is The Cycle Over?

(40:13) Ads (Aptos, Bitwise, WalletConnect)

(42:32) How Does Macro Impact Crypto?

(46:08) Trading This Cycle

(49:55) Narratives vs Fundamentals

(53:32) A Framework For Investing In Crypto

(58:35) Crypto Market Inefficiencies

(01:00:30) The Psychology Of Trading

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.