Ilan Berman, Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council and author of "Navigating the Iranian Opposition," delves into the enduring challenges posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran. He discusses the significance of Iran's diverse opposition movements, like the Women's Life Freedom Movement, and the complexities of shaping a future society. Berman highlights governance options post-revolution, including the role of youth in driving change and the urgent need for effective U.S. policies to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional stability.
The enduring hostility of the Iranian regime towards the U.S. highlights the unresolved issues that complicate future American policy toward Iran.
Emerging public dissent in Iran, particularly through movements like Women's Life Freedom, indicates a shifting demand for fundamental political change among citizens.
Deep dives
Hostage Crisis and Its Impact
The seizure of the American embassy in Tehran 45 years ago resulted in 52 Americans being held hostage for 444 days, a significant event that shaped U.S.-Iran relations. In recent demonstrations, regime supporters in Tehran celebrated this historic hostage crisis, expressing anti-American sentiments and showcasing strong hostility towards perceived enemies like Israel and the United States. This enduring animosity illustrates the long-lasting ramifications of the Islamic Revolution, which replaced the Shah's regime and established a government that continues to threaten regional stability. As Iran's current leadership, under Ayatollah Khamenei, pledges retaliation against perceived aggressors, it becomes evident that the core issues of U.S. policy toward Iran remain unresolved.
Understanding Iranian Opposition
Research into the Iranian opposition reveals that while there is widespread dissatisfaction with the regime, a coherent plan for a post-theocratic Iran remains lacking. The author emphasizes a need to analyze the complexities of political actors within Iran, particularly as external perception often oversimplifies the situation. Through interviews with national security practitioners, the discussion shifts from merely identifying opposition voices to understanding what conditions are necessary for a future Iran that aligns with U.S. interests. The insight gathered from these conversations highlights the importance of establishing prerequisites for a stable and secure post-regime environment.
Consensus on Regime Rejection
Recent protests in Iran have galvanized public sentiment against the regime, marking a significant shift from mere dissatisfaction with specific policies to a broader rejection of the Islamic Republic itself. The Women's Life Freedom Movement, sparked by the brutalization of a Kurdish Iranian woman, resonated with citizens across different demographics, emphasizing the regime's deep-seated unpopularity. Interviewees observed that there is a developing consensus among Iranians regarding the inevitability of the regime's fall, showcasing widespread hope for political transformation. This growing dissent underscores the urgency for external support that can reinforce the aspirations of the Iranian people for fundamental change.
America's Role in Future Iran
The discussion stresses that America's future policy toward Iran should focus on engaging with its citizens rather than its ruling regime, acknowledging that the demographic shifts favor younger generations yearning for change. Recognizing the need for a nuanced understanding of Iranian opposition, the commentary addresses the complexities faced by internal and external groups working toward a democratic transition. It is crucial for the U.S. to establish principles that would shape a future Iran in alignment with national security while avoiding past mistakes in foreign interventions. By fostering pluralism and inclusivity among various ethnic and political groups, the U.S. can play a supportive role in shaping a more stable and harmonious post-theocratic Iran.
45 years ago this month, followers of the Ayatollah Khomeini seized the American embassy in Tehran and held 52 Americans hostage. Last weekend, regime supporters in Tehran celebrated that blatant violation of the most basic international law by rallying outside what used to be the embassy building.
Over the decades since, the threats posed by the regime that came to power, the misleadingly named Islamic Republic of Iran, have not diminished.