The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast 996: A New Way to Spot Middle-Round Running Back Breakouts
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Jun 10, 2025 Discover innovative strategies for maximizing your fantasy football potential, particularly through best ball leagues. The discussion emphasizes the importance of average draft position (ADP) in finding hidden gems among middle-round running backs. Insights into pass-catching abilities and historical performance metrics reveal how to spot potential league-winners that others may overlook. Dive into effective drafting techniques to supercharge your team this season!
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Target Share Predicts Middle-Round RB Success
- Middle-round running backs (ADP 19-42) who have higher target shares significantly outperform expectations.
- Backs with 10%+ target share outperform expectation by 43%, while sub-5% share backs almost never do.
Use Yards Per Route Run Metric
- Use previous season yards per route run to gauge middle-round running backs' potential.
- Aim for backs with 1.7+ yards per route run for better chances at exceeding expectations.
Target Efficiency, Avoid Low ROI Backs
- Focus on middle-round backs with high yards per route run to increase odds of a 10%+ target share.
- Avoid those with low yards per route run as they rarely achieve high target shares or league-winning seasons.