The Milk Road Show

The US Treasury's Next Move Will Inflate Everything w/ Craig Shapiro

7 snips
May 29, 2025
Guest
Craig Shapiro
Craig Shapiro, a macro strategist at the Bear Traps Report with over 20 years in finance, dissects the U.S. cash crunch and what it means for the Treasury. He explores how recent court rulings on tariffs could affect economic strategies and job growth. The discussion shifts to the complexities of U.S. Treasury strategies amid inflation and changing international investment patterns. Shapiro emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and consumer sentiment for making informed investment decisions.
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INSIGHT

Court Limits Trump Tariffs

  • The court ruled Trump exceeded authority using unilateral tariffs, adding uncertainty around his trade agenda.
  • The administration will appeal and may seek temporary stays, so tariffs are not disappearing soon.
INSIGHT

Big Bill Signals Inflation

  • The 'big beautiful bill' signals the administration abandoning deficit cuts, leaning on inflationary growth to manage debt.
  • Bond markets reacted negatively to increased deficit spending, showing concern about sustainability.
ADVICE

Managing Debt Issuance and Yields

  • Treasury might restrain issuing longer-term debt to avoid higher yields, aiding inflation.
  • If yields rise further, expect renewed money printing and an inflationary market comeback.
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