Short Wave How scientists predict big winter storms
14 snips
Jan 28, 2026 
Rebecca Hersher, NPR climate reporter who covers weather and climate, explains how computer models and vast observation networks gave long warning for Winter Storm Fern. She explores how multiple models are combined and why abundant, continuous data from satellites, radars, balloons and ships is crucial. The conversation also flags risks to those data systems from government budget and staffing cuts.
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Personal Experience With the Storm
- Rebecca Hersher describes checking her window thermometer at 14°F and eight inches of snow outside.
- She notes that tens of millions of people were affected by the storm across many states.
Computer Models Unlock Multi-Day Forecasts
- Advances in computer weather models let meteorologists predict storms days in advance.
- Models simulate atmospheric physics to produce probabilistic scenarios about future weather.
Data Beats Raw Computing Power
- High-quality weather forecasts depend on both computing power and, crucially, good data.
- Rebecca Hersher emphasizes that abundant, granular, continuous observations are essential for model accuracy.