The Bulletin with UBS UBS European Conference, part three: Central banks
Dec 15, 2025
Join Jonathan Pingel, Chief US Economist at UBS, who shares insights on US growth and the tensions affecting inflation. Anna Titareva, European and UK Economist, discusses Eurozone prospects and why she believes Germany will become a growth leader by 2027. Eleanor Amoroso, Rates Strategist, introduces an innovative AI tool that tracks central-bank language and sentiment. Together, they explore the interplay of fiscal policies and the nuanced communication of central banks, revealing new ways to interpret monetary direction.
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Transcript
Episode notes
Tariffs Versus Fiscal Stimulus
- US 2026 outlook balances tariff headwinds against fiscal stimulus that may boost growth from Q2 onward.
- Jonathan Pingel warns this mix creates greater uncertainty for Fed policy and labour markets than consensus implies.
Germany's Stimulus Is Slow To Show
- Germany's announced fiscal stimulus could lift growth but implementation delays have kept near-term data subdued.
- Anna Titareva expects growth to pick up in 2026 as projects and approvals finally ramp up.
Tone Trumps Simple Counts
- Central bank communication differs by institution and individual speakers, so small tonal shifts matter for policy interpretation.
- Anna Titareva highlights the need to pick up subtle cues from speeches and interviews across committees.