Energy Evolution Rooftop solar on edge: navigating the tax credit drop
Jan 6, 2026
Kirsten Errick, a solar reporter for S&P Global, discusses the imminent end of the Section 25D tax credits and its impact on residential solar. Maheep Mandloi, a clean energy analyst, highlights the rush to complete installations before the deadline and challenges in financing models. Cinthya Peña analyzes how regional economics and rising electricity costs may still favor solar adoption. The conversation also touches on the evolution of business models towards third-party ownership and prospects for storage integration in the coming years.
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Federal 25D Credit Sunsets Early
- The 25D residential clean energy tax credit sunset at end of 2025, removing the 30% federal incentive for new rooftop solar starting 2026.
- Kirsten Errick notes this cut short the IRA timeline and amplified an expected year-end rush to capture credits.
Two Dominant Ownership Models
- Cash/loan models mean homeowners own systems; third-party models (PPA/leases) mean a solar company owns them and customers pay monthly.
- Kirsten Errick explains business-model differences shaping who claims tax benefits and who bears risk.
The 'Solar-Coaster' Is Predictable
- The solar industry regularly faces policy-driven boom-and-bust cycles dubbed the "solar-coaster."
- Kirsten Errick compares prior net-metering changes to the 25D sunset to show predictable market upheaval.