Despite solid wage growth in May, consumers showed some restraint, and inflation continued to moderate. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) remained flat month-over-month, down from 0.3% in April. Core PCEPI eased to 0.1% from 0.3% the previous month. Year-over-year, core PCE stands at 2.6%, down from a persistent 2.8% over the past three months. In March, the FOMC dot plot projected core inflation, as measured by PCE, to reach just 2.6% for 2024 alongside a 4% unemployment rate. The unemployment rate has already hit 4%, aligning with the forecast, while core PCE is at 2.6% year-over-year.
