Danny discusses the three exponentials driving AI progress: hardware, algorithmic, and spending. We'll consider extrapolating these trends 10–20 years out. We'll translate effective compute progress into GPT-2 to GPT-3 sized jumps and build an intuition for such jumps. We'll use the extrapolations and jump intuition to think about what capabilities normal progress in effective compute are likely to yield. This session will be particularly relevant to people very concerned about AI, considering working in AI, or choosing an agenda within AI. View the original talk and video here.

Effective Altruism is a social movement dedicated to finding ways to do the most good possible, whether through charitable donations, career choices, or volunteer projects. EA Global conferences are gatherings for EAs to meet.

Effective Altruism is a social movement dedicated to finding ways to do the most good possible, whether through charitable donations, career choices, or volunteer projects. EA Global conferences are gatherings for EAs to meet. You can also listen to this talk along with its accompanying video on YouTube.