Julia Coronado, founder and president of Macropolicy Perspectives, analyzes the recent Fed policy meeting and its implications for economic policy moving into 2025. She discusses how potential Trump administration strategies might shape the economy and affect the stock market. Other fascinating topics include projections for consumer spending trends in the retail sector and the evolving challenges homebuilders face amidst rising interest rates. Expect insightful predictions on companies to watch as we look ahead to the new year.
Retailers are adapting to value-driven consumer preferences by realigning their operations and emphasizing private label brands to remain competitive.
The anticipated rise in mortgage rates poses challenges for homebuyers and could lead to disparities in the housing market performance between large and small builders.
Deep dives
Consumer Behavior Shift Towards Value
Consumers are increasingly focused on value, which is compelling retailers to realign their operations. Major companies like Nordstrom are altering their assortment strategies, while giants like Walmart and Target emphasize pricing and selection. Private label brands, such as Costco's Kirkland, are becoming more prominent as shoppers prefer them over national brands. This trend suggests a significant shift in consumer purchasing behaviors favoring value-driven options in a price-sensitive market.
Rise of Retail Media as Revenue Stream
Retail media is emerging as a critical revenue stream for retailers, contributing a high margin of approximately 80%. Companies like Kroger and Walmart are leveraging their first-party data to create advertising opportunities, transforming their retail spaces into advertising platforms. This allows retailers to monetize their captive customer base effectively while offsetting traditional margins that range from 3% to 5%. The growth of retail media suggests a new approach to maximizing profitability in an evolving retail landscape.
Mortgage Rates and Housing Market Outlook
The direction of mortgage rates is anticipated to greatly influence the housing market, particularly as rates have risen from around 6.1% to 7.1%. This increase in rates poses challenges for homebuyers due to affordability, limiting momentum in the housing sector. However, analysts predict that the market may see modest growth in 2025, particularly benefiting large, well-capitalized builders. Smaller builders, reliant on local financing, are expected to struggle under these economic pressures, leading to continued disparities in market performance.
Federal Reserve's Rate Path and Economic Implications
The Federal Reserve's recent signaling indicates a cautious approach, projecting only two rate cuts for 2025 amid persistent inflation concerns. This messaging highlights the balancing act between maintaining price stability and supporting employment conditions.macroeconomic environment, however, could shift significantly with the incoming administration's policies. Shifts in tariffs and immigration could create inflationary pressures, complicating the Fed's objectives and potentially influencing economic activity and consumer sentiment.
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On this podcast: Jennifer Bartashus, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst covering retail discusses holiday consumer spending and looks ahead to the retail space in 2025, Drew Reading, Bloomberg Intelligence home builders analysts breaks down what’s next for the home builders in the new year, Julia Coronado, founder and president of Macropolicy Perspectives reacts to the Fed’s policy meeting in December and discusses how economic policy might be shaped by Trump in the new year, and Tim Craighead, Bloomberg Intelligence Research Director for Content discusses the 50 companies to watch in 2025. Also featuring guest host Caroline Hyde.
The Bloomberg Intelligence radio show with Paul Sweeney and Alix Steel podcasts through Apple’s iTunes, Spotify and Luminary. It broadcasts on Saturdays at 1pm on Bloomberg’s flagship station WBBR (1130 AM) in New York, 92.9 in Boston, 99.1 FM in Washington, channel 121 on SiriusXM, www.bloombergradio.com, and iPhone and Android mobile apps.
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