Dojo Talks: A Chess Podcast
EP 147 | FIDE Ratings & The Stats of Cheating (ft. Dr. Kenneth Regan)
Mar 25, 2025
Dr. Kenneth Regan, a computer scientist specializing in chess cheating detection, dives into the fascinating world of FIDE ratings. He reveals how recent changes have led to inflated ratings, particularly for players under 2000. The conversation touches on the challenges of accurately measuring skill and detecting cheating, where statistical analysis plays a crucial role. Regan shares insights on discrepancies faced by players post-pandemic and discusses the critical need for reliable data in both online and over-the-board chess.
01:05:35
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Quick takeaways
- FIDE adjusted chess ratings to better reflect player strengths, correct inflation, and stabilize the system after significant rating distortions were identified.
- Statistical models are essential for detecting cheating in chess, allowing for accurate assessments of performance anomalies while preserving fair play integrity.
Deep dives
Understanding the Rating Adjustment
The adjustment of chess ratings implemented by FIDE primarily aimed to address an inflation of ratings observed among players below 2000. Contrary to the initial belief that this would lead to a rapid increase in ratings for everyone, the infusion of points was necessary to correct a significant deflation problem. This issue was identified when statistical analyses revealed that underdogs were winning more than predicted, demonstrating that the rating differences were not accurately representing player capabilities. By raising the minimum rating from 1000 to 1400 and implementing a gradual point adjustment, FIDE sought to stabilize the rating system and provide a more accurate reflection of player strength.
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